怎样判断股票的底部?
在股票市场上,个股不可能会出现一直上涨的情况,也不可能一直下跌下去,一般下跌到一定程度之后,会出现反弹的情况,那么,投资者如何判断股票已经到底部了呢?
本人喜欢以月线级别为基础判断。(以下均以月线考量作参考,用寒武纪为例子)
特征1.均线:
以月21均线为标准,启动前一直被月21均线压制着,没突破月21均线前都是底部区间,不宜介入。(上图黄线是月21均线
特征2.成交量:
以放量突破21月均线为标准,资金是股价上涨的决定因素,股价需要资金的推动,当资金放量突破21月均线代表行情要走出底部区间。如图1,寒武纪1月总成交20.2亿,2月份总成交170亿,2月股价收83.97元,放量突破21月均线75.37元。
特征3.月MACD底背离:
股价往下走,创新低,月macd指标绿柱收窄,往上走。
特征4.月线资金累积流入:
月线级别累计资金流入大于累计资金流出,净流入为正时,代表行情要走出底部区间。(上图紫色线为累计资金流入,黄色线为累计资金流出)
特征5.月线主力进场,吸筹明显:
明显的看到主力进场吸筹的红柱出现,红柱越高,出现的次数越多代表主力进场资金越多,后期推动股价上涨的动力越足,股票上涨的潜力越大,具体如上图所示。
综上所述:要判断一只股票是不是跌到了阶段性底部,我们可以结合股票的月21均线、月成交量、月macd底背离,月线资金累积流入,月线主力进场吸筹等5个方面进行综合判断。
最后附资金流入流出指标和主力行为指标代码:
资金流入流出指标
CN1:=HHV(V,5);{5日最高量}
CN2:=O> C;
CN02:=C> O;
CN03:=C= O;
CN04:=((SUM(V,5)/CN1));
CN05:=IF(CN04> 0.3,1,0);{大资金}
CN06:=IF(CN2 AND CN05,V,0);{大资金流出}
CN07:=IF(CN02 AND CN05,V,0);{大资金流入}
CN08:=IF(CN03 AND CN05,V,0);{不明流向大资金}
累积资金流入:SUM(CN07,9),COLORMAGENTA;
累积资金流出:SUM(CN06,9);
净流入:(累积资金流入-累积资金流出),COLOR0000FF;
净流入MA3:MA(净流入,3),DOTLINE,COLORBLUE;
净流入MA5:MA(净流入,5),DOTLINE,COLORWHITE;
不明流向大资金:SUM(CN08,9),COLORGREEN;
{资金流向}
QJJ:=VOL / ((H - L) * 2 - ABS(C - O));
XVL:=IF(C > O,QJJ * (H - L),IF(C <
O,QJJ * (H - O + (C - L)),VOL / 2)) + IF(C > O,0 - QJJ * (H - C
+ (O - L)),IF(C < O,0 - QJJ * (H - L),0 - VOL / 2));
HSL:=XVL / 20 / 1.15;
攻击流量:=HSL * 0.55 + REF(HSL,1) * 0.33 + REF(HSL,2) *
0.22;
GJJ:=EMA(攻击流量,8);
{流量基线‰:GJJ*1000,COLOR00BBBB,COLORGREEN;};
{----------------------}
GJTJ1:=100*(C-LLV(L,5))/(HHV(C,5)-LLV(L,5));
GJTJ2:=100*(C-LLV(L,10))/(HHV(C,10)-LLV(L,10));
GJTJ3:=100*(C-LLV(L,20))/(HHV(C,20)-LLV(L,20));
GJTJ4:=100*(C-LLV(L,30))/(HHV(C,30)-LLV(L,30));
BAIJIN1:=BARSLAST(CROSS(30,GJTJ1))< 2 AND
BARSLAST(CROSS(GJTJ1,50))< 2;
BAIJIN2:=BARSLAST(CROSS(GJTJ4,GJTJ1))< 2
AND GJTJ1> GJTJ4;
BAIJIN3:=GJTJ1> 60 AND GJTJ4>
70;
DRAWTEXT(BAIJIN1 AND BAIJIN2 AND
BAIJIN3,净流入*0.96,'白金'),COLORWHITE;
HUANGJIN1:=BARSLAST(CROSS(50,GJTJ1))< 3
AND BARSLAST(CROSS(GJTJ1,50))< 3;
HUANGJIN2:=BARSLAST(CROSS(GJTJ4,GJTJ1))<
2 AND GJTJ1> GJTJ4;
DRAWTEXT(HUANGJIN1 AND
HUANGJIN2,净流入*0.98,'黄金'),COLORYELLOW;
XG:=BARSLAST(CROSS(GJTJ4,GJTJ1))<
5 AND GJTJ1> GJTJ4;
ZHENCANG1:=BARSLAST(CROSS(GJTJ4,GJTJ1))> 3 AND
BARSLAST(CROSS(GJTJ1,GJTJ4))< 3;
ZHENCANG2:=BARSLAST(CROSS(GJTJ4,GJTJ2));
ZHENCANG3:=GJTJ3< GJTJ4 AND GJTJ2<
GJTJ4;
ZHENCANG4:=BARSLAST(CROSS(GJTJ4,GJTJ3))>
3 AND BARSLAST(CROSS(GJTJ1,GJTJ4))< 3;
ZHENCANG5:=GJTJ2< GJTJ3 AND GJTJ2<
GJTJ4 AND GJTJ2< GJTJ1 AND GJTJ1= 100;
ZCB1:=ZHENCANG1> 0 AND REF(ZHENCANG1,1)=
0 AND REF(ZHENCANG1,2)> 0;
DRAWTEXT(ZHENCANG1 AND ZHENCANG2 AND
ZHENCANG3 AND ZHENCANG4 AND ZHENCANG5,净流入*0.94,'震仓买入');
AA:=BARSLAST(CROSS(97,GJTJ1))<= 1 AND
BARSLAST(CROSS(GJTJ1,85))<
主力行为指标:
VAR1:=REF((LOW+OPEN+CLOSE+HIGH)/4,1);
VAR2:=SMA(ABS(LOW-VAR1),13,1)/SMA(MAX(LOW-VAR1,0),10,1);
VAR3:=EMA(VAR2,10);
VAR4:=LLV(LOW,33);
VAR5:=EMA(IF(LOW<=VAR4,VAR3,0),3);
Z:0,COLORBLACK;{}
主力进场:IF(VAR5>REF(VAR5,1),VAR5,0),COLORRED,NODRAW;
洗盘:IF(VAR5<REF(VAR5,1),VAR5,0),COLORGREEN,NODRAW;
STICKLINE(VAR5<REF(VAR5,1),0,VAR5,3,0),COLORGREEN;
STICKLINE(VAR5>REF(VAR5,1),0,VAR5,3,0 ),COLOR000055;
STICKLINE(VAR5>REF(VAR5,1),0,VAR5,2.6,0 ),COLOR000077;
STICKLINE(VAR5>REF(VAR5,1),0,VAR5,2.1,0 ),COLOR000099;
STICKLINE(VAR5>REF(VAR5,1),0,VAR5,1.5,0 ),COLOR0000BB;
STICKLINE(VAR5>REF(VAR5,1),0,VAR5,0.9,0 ),COLOR0000DD;
STICKLINE(VAR5>REF(VAR5,1),0,VAR5,0.3,0 ),COLOR0000FF;
STICKLINE(VAR5<REF(VAR5,1),0,VAR5,3,0),COLOR005500;
STICKLINE(VAR5<REF(VAR5,1),0,VAR5,2.6,0),COLOR007700;
STICKLINE(VAR5<REF(VAR5,1),0,VAR5,2.1,0),COLOR009900;
STICKLINE(VAR5<REF(VAR5,1),0,VAR5,1.5,0),COLOR00BB00;
STICKLINE(VAR5<REF(VAR5,1),0,VAR5,0.9,0),COLOR00DD00;
STICKLINE(VAR5<REF(VAR5,1),0,VAR5,0.3,0),COLOR00FF00;
VAR21:=SMA(ABS(HIGH-VAR1),13,1)/SMA(MIN(HIGH-VAR1,0),10,1);
VAR31:=EMA(VAR21,10);
VAR41:=HHV(HIGH,33);
VAR51:=EMA(IF(HIGH>=VAR41,VAR31,0),3);
主力拉高:IF(VAR51<REF(VAR51,1),VAR51,0),COLORYELLOW,NODRAW;
STICKLINE(VAR51<REF(VAR51,1),0,VAR51,3,0),COLORYELLOW;
出货:IF(VAR51>REF(VAR51,1),VAR51,0),COLORCYAN,NODRAW;
STICKLINE(VAR51>REF(VAR51,1),0,VAR51,3,0 ),COLORCYAN;
DRAWTEXT_FIX(1,0.0,5,0,''),COLORYELLOW;
优秀作者:股票之道